陈朝晖;汤海涛. 基于Monte-Carlo法的极值风速模型研究[J]. 工程力学, 2009, 26(增刊Ⅰ): 193-197.
引用本文: 陈朝晖;汤海涛. 基于Monte-Carlo法的极值风速模型研究[J]. 工程力学, 2009, 26(增刊Ⅰ): 193-197.
CHEN Zhao-hui;TANG Hai-tao. THE EXTREME WIND SPEED PREDICTING MODEL OF TYPHOON BY USING MONTE-CARLO METHOD[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2009, 26(增刊Ⅰ): 193-197.
Citation: CHEN Zhao-hui;TANG Hai-tao. THE EXTREME WIND SPEED PREDICTING MODEL OF TYPHOON BY USING MONTE-CARLO METHOD[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2009, 26(增刊Ⅰ): 193-197.

基于Monte-Carlo法的极值风速模型研究

THE EXTREME WIND SPEED PREDICTING MODEL OF TYPHOON BY USING MONTE-CARLO METHOD

  • 摘要: 在沿海台风多发区域,台风造成的损失非常严重,合理估算结构寿命期内可能遭遇的台风极值风速十分必要。以厦门为例,采用Batts风场模型,利用Monte-Carlo数值模拟方法拟合最大风速的极值渐进分布;通过三种常用极值分布函数以及广义Parato分布拟合结果的对比分析,得到了100年重现期内反向威布尔分布对于厦门地区年最大风速拟合最好,而极值Ⅱ型与历史数据的偏差较大,最后,给出了厦门地区不同重现期内最佳的极值风速估算值。

     

    Abstract: Taking Xiamen as an example, based on the assumption of Batts wind field model and numerical simulated wind speed data of typhoon by using Monte-Carlo method, the distribution functions of extreme wind speed were analyzed and the maximum wind speeds in different return periods were predicted. The numerically simulated results of the extreme distribution functions are coincide with those of empirical distribution function. Compared with the analysis results of different extreme distribution functions, such as Gumbel distribution function, Fréchet distribution function, reverse Weibull distribution function, and Generalized Parato distribution function, the reverse Weibull distribution function provides the most reasonable prediction of maximum wind speed in 100 years of return period, while the predicting values of Fréchet distribution function are significantly different from the historical data. In addition, the extreme wind speeds of different return periods in Xiamen were estimated.

     

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