李宁, 潘慧雨, 李忠献. 一种基于自适应集成学习代理模型的结构可靠性分析方法[J]. 工程力学, 2023, 40(3): 27-35. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.09.0708
引用本文: 李宁, 潘慧雨, 李忠献. 一种基于自适应集成学习代理模型的结构可靠性分析方法[J]. 工程力学, 2023, 40(3): 27-35. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.09.0708
LI Ning, PAN Hui-yu, LI Zhong-xian. STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD BASED ON ADAPTIVE ENSEMBLE LEARNING-SURROGATE MODEL[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2023, 40(3): 27-35. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.09.0708
Citation: LI Ning, PAN Hui-yu, LI Zhong-xian. STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD BASED ON ADAPTIVE ENSEMBLE LEARNING-SURROGATE MODEL[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2023, 40(3): 27-35. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.09.0708

一种基于自适应集成学习代理模型的结构可靠性分析方法

STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHOD BASED ON ADAPTIVE ENSEMBLE LEARNING-SURROGATE MODEL

  • 摘要: 结构可靠性分析需要精确计算结构或系统的失效概率,当结构失效概率低时,运算量大且操作困难。可采用代理模型替代原始性能函数,结合自适应实验设计,在保证准确率的同时大幅减少原始模型的总运行次数。该文提出了基于自适应集成学习代理模型的结构可靠性分析方法,将适应性较广的Kriging与最近发展的PC-Kriging代理模型集成;利用代理模型提供预测点的方差特征,提出新的集成学习函数,识别高预测误差区域,实现高效拟合失效边界;通过主动学习算法在预测误差大和接近极限状态的区域添加采样,迭代更新集成代理模型。通过3个算例,验证了该文方法与单一代理模型结构可靠性分析方法的优势,与AK-MCS+U和AK-MCS+EFF相比,所提方法计算成本低、准确度高。

     

    Abstract: Structural reliability analysis requires calculation of the failure probability of a structure or system. However, the calculation of structural response is computation costly or difficult to carry out for the system with a relative low failure probability. The surrogate model can be used to represent the original performance function, which can ensure the accuracy and reduce the total number of runs of the original model significantly when combined with the adaptive experimental design. A structural reliability analysis method is proposed based on the adaptive ensemble learning-surrogate model, which integrates the versatile Kriging model and the recently developed PC-Kriging model. Based on the fact that these two surrogate models can provide prediction variance characteristics, a new ensemble learning function is proposed to identify the areas with high prediction errors and the failure boundaries. With experimental design stratgy, the new learning algorithm is used to add new samples in areas with large prediction errors and in areas close to the limit state, and iteratively update the ensemble learning-surrogate model. The proposed method is verified against three examples, which show that the method has low computational cost with high accuracy, compared with the single surrogate model-based structural reliability analysis methods (AK-MCS+U and AK-MCS+EFF methods).

     

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