郑晓伟, 李宏男, 张营营, 尹世平. 基于概率的高层建筑地震需求模型与风险评估[J]. 工程力学, 2022, 39(9): 31-39. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.05.0329
引用本文: 郑晓伟, 李宏男, 张营营, 尹世平. 基于概率的高层建筑地震需求模型与风险评估[J]. 工程力学, 2022, 39(9): 31-39. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.05.0329
ZHENG Xiao-wei, LI Hong-nan, ZHANG Ying-ying, YIN Shi-ping. PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC DEMAND MODELS AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2022, 39(9): 31-39. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.05.0329
Citation: ZHENG Xiao-wei, LI Hong-nan, ZHANG Ying-ying, YIN Shi-ping. PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC DEMAND MODELS AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2022, 39(9): 31-39. DOI: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.05.0329

基于概率的高层建筑地震需求模型与风险评估

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC DEMAND MODELS AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS

  • 摘要: 提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震风险评估方法,综合考虑了地震危险性模型、输入地震动记录、结构参数和需求模型的不确定性,并以云南大理地区1970年−2017年间的地震数据为研究基础进行了详细讨论。在传统基于概率地震危险性分析方法的基础上,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,通过贝叶斯更新准则,确定了地震概率模型中未知参数的后验概率分布;通过贝叶斯理论建立了基于概率的地震需求模型,并在易损性中考虑了需求模型认知不确定性的影响;以42层钢框架-RC核心筒建筑为例,开展了地震作用下的风险评估。研究表明:基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,能够获得更为合理的危险性模型;忽略需求模型中参数不确定性的影响,将错误估计结构的地震易损性;不同加载工况将对高层建筑的地震风险产生显著影响。提出的概率风险评估方法,提供了可以考虑固有不确定性和认知不确定性的有效途径,有助于推动高性能结构地震韧性评价和设计理论的发展。

     

    Abstract: It presents a Bayesian-based seismic risk assessment methodology for high-rise buildings, in which, uncertainties associated with the seismic hazard model, input seismic loads, structural properties, and the demand model are taken into consideration. Using the earthquake data from 1970-2017 in Dali, the presented method is discussed in detail. Based on the traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), a Bayesian-based PSHA (B-PSHA) method is proposed herein. The Bayesian updating rule is used to develop the posterior probability distributions of the unknown parameters in the hazard model. The probabilistic demand model is constructed by the Bayes theory, which will be applied to account for the epistemic uncertainty associated with the demand model for seismic fragility analysis. The Bayesian-based risk assessment is implemented on a 42-story steel frame-reinforced concrete (RC) core tube building. The results indicate that: A more rational seismic hazard model can be obtained by the B-PSHA method; Erroneous estimates of fragility may be made when ignoring the uncertainty in the unknown parameters of the demand model; Seismic loading directions will have significant impacts on the seismic risk. The presented risk assessment method provides an effective approach to investigate the effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and is beneficial for the progress of seismic resilience assessment and structural design theory.

     

/

返回文章
返回