考虑劣化的供水管网时变可靠度研究

STUDY ON TIME-VARYING RELIABILITY OF WATER DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS CONSIDERING DETERIORATION

  • 摘要: 我国多数供水管网已持续运行数十年,管道劣化效应日益凸显,成为影响供水管网功能可靠度的关键因素。本文提出了一个考虑劣化的供水管网时变可靠性高效分析框架:首先,利用基于人工神经网络的管道故障概率预测模型来评估管道的机械性劣化状态;接着,建立基于渗漏和爆管的故障模拟模型,其中,采用管道粗糙度时变模型,表示管道水力性能时变劣化过程;最后,结合概率密度演化理论,进行供水管网时变可靠度分析。采用该框架计算某市供水管网在不同服役年限的运行可靠度并对计算结果进行分析。研究结果表明,劣化效应对管网可靠度影响显著,且该框架能够在保证计算精度与效率的前提下,实现考虑劣化的供水管网是时变可靠度分析。

     

    Abstract: Most water distribution networks (WDNs) in China have been in continuous operation for decades. The pipe deterioration is becoming increasingly prominent, posing a key factor affecting the functional reliability of WDNs. This study proposes an efficient analytical framework for assessing the time-varying reliability of WDNs considering pipe deterioration. First, a pipe failure probability prediction model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) is utilized to evaluate the pipe mechanical deterioration. Then, a failure simulation model based on leaks and bursts is established, wherein a time-dependent roughness model is adopted to characterize the time-varying deterioration process of pipe hydraulic performance. Finally, the operational reliability of the WDNs is analyzed by integrating the probability density evolution method (PDEM). This framework is applied to calculate the operational reliability of a real-world WDN at different service years. The study results demonstrate that the deterioration effect significantly impacts the reliability of WDNs. Moreover, the proposed framework enables the operational reliability analysis of WDNs considering pipe deterioration while ensuring computational accuracy and efficiency simultaneously.

     

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