基于GCIM的三向主余震地震动联合选取研究

STUDY ON JOINT SELECTION OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL MAINSHOCK AND AFTERSHOCK GROUND MOTIONS RECORDS UPON GENERALIZED CONDITIONAL INTENSITY MEASURES

  • 摘要: 主余震地震动选取研究大多采用分次匹配的方法来挑选主余震地震动,但该方法难以准确模拟主余震间真实关联性。为了克服上述不足,该文扩展了广义条件强度参数(GCIM)基本理论,提出了以多个强度参数(IM)为条件的三向主余震GCIM条件分布的构建方法,进一步提出三向主余震地震动联合选取理论,并以新西兰地区WAKC台站记录的主余震地震信息为条件IM设定地震信息,利用661组真实主余震地震序列计算的事件间和事件内残差来建立水平-水平向主余震、水平-竖向主余震强度参数相关系数模型,通过相关系数模型构建三向主余震GCIM条件分布,对目标主余震序列数据库进行联合选取。结果表明:三向主余震GCIM生成的谱加速度比ASK14地震动预测方程更接近真实地震动谱加速度;考虑主余震IM相关性的三向主余震GCIM条件分布与不考虑主余震IM相关性的“无条件分布”存在显著差异;三向主余震联合选取结果与目标理论分布匹配良好。

     

    Abstract: Most studies on the selection of mainshock and aftershock ground motions adopt the method of sequential matching to select mainshock and aftershock ground motions, which has difficulties accurately simulating the true correlation between the main and aftershock earthquake. To overcome this limitation, this study extended the basic theory of generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM), proposing a method for constructing three-dimensional mainshock and aftershock GCIM conditional distributions conditioned on multiple IMs, and developed theoretical details of the joint selection method of three-dimensional mainshock and aftershock ground motions based on GCIM. Then, the main and aftershock earthquake information recorded at WAKC Station in New Zealand was used as the conditional IM to set the earthquake information, and 661 real MS–AS ground-motion pairs were used to calculate interevent and interevent residuals, which can construct correlation coefficient models of horizontal-horizontal mainshock and aftershock IMs and horizontal-vertical mainshock and aftershock IMs. Additionally, existing correlation coefficient models were used to construct three-dimensional mainshock and aftershock GCIM conditional distributions, and joint selection was carried out according to the target MS-AS ground motion database. The results show that the three-dimensional mainshock and aftershock GCIM method performs closer to the real ground motion response spectra than the ASK14 model; that there are some differences between the constructed three-dimensional mainshock and aftershock GCIM conditional distributions considering the correlations between mainshock and aftershock IMs and the "unconditional" distribution without considering the correlations between mainshock and aftershock IMs; and that the joint selection results of three-dimensional mainshock and aftershock ground motions match well with the target theoretical distribution.

     

/

返回文章
返回