工程系统震后功能恢复模拟与抗震韧性风险评估方法——以变电站系统为例

POST-EARTHQUAKE RECOVERY SIMULATION AND SEISMIC RESILIENCE RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR ENGINEERING SYSTEMS—TAKING ONE SUBSTATION SYSTEM AS AN EXAMPLE

  • 摘要: 对工程系统的抗震韧性进行量化评估是构建“韧性城乡”的基石,但目前仍缺乏通用的能够准确模拟系统震后功能恢复的模型与充分考虑其中不确定性因素影响的抗震韧性概率量化评估手段。该文以变电站工程系统为例,介绍了基于修复资源供需关系的系统震后功能恢复模拟方法,结合基于蒙特卡洛模拟的系统地震易损性分析给出了评估系统抗震韧性的方法流程,并进一步综合地震风险提出了基于风险曲线和风险曲面的系统抗震韧性概率量化评估方法。通过对某真实变电站系统进行震后功能恢复模拟、关键影响因素识别与抗震韧性风险评估验证了所提方法的有效性,其为变电站等工程系统基于概率的抗震韧性评估、韧性目标制定与韧性提升措施分析等提供了新的有利工具。

     

    Abstract: The quantitative assessment for the seismic resilience of engineering systems is the cornerstone of building "Resilient Urban and Rural". However, there is still a lack of a universal model that can accurately simulate the post-earthquake functional recovery of the system and a probabilistic quantitative assessment method for the seismic resilience that can fully consider the influence of associated uncertainty factors. Taking one substation engineering system as an example, the post-earthquake functional recovery simulation method based on the supply and demand relationship of repair resources was introduced. Combined with the system seismic vulnerability analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, the method flowchart for evaluating the system's seismic resilience was developed. By further integrated with the seismic hazard risk, a probabilistic quantitative method for assessing the seismic resilience of a system was put forward using risk curves and risk surfaces. The effectiveness of the method proposed was verified by simulating the post-earthquake functional recovery, by identifying key uncertainty factors, and by assessing seismic resilience risk for a real-world substation system. It provides a new and beneficial tool for seismic resilience assessment, resilience target determination, and resilience improvement measures investigations for engineering systems in a probabilistic manner.

     

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